DRI-310 for week of 9-15-13: What is Wrong with President Obama’s Claim that the Government Rescued the American Economy?

An Access Advertising EconBrief:

What is Wrong with President Obama’s Claim that the Government Rescued the American Economy?

This week marked the unofficial five-year anniversary of the 2008 Financial Crisis, inaugurated by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. In the world of politics and news media, disasters are celebrated as religiously as triumphs and advances. President Barack Obama delivered a solemn recapitulation of the Crisis and his administration’s actions over the ensuing five years. The President’s use of rhetoric has built a solid constituency that has swept him into the White House twice. A full understanding of economics allows us to understand why his actions (and his justifications for them) have been so popular, why his explanation of events is wrong and what the true nature of the Crisis was (and is).

The ICU Metaphor: Government as Emergency Physician, the Economy as Critically Ill Patient

President Obama described his primary duty as “making sure we recover from the worst economic crisis of our lifetimes.” By implying a crisis from which recovery is problematic, the President draws a clear analogy with emergency medicine. A patient faces a medical crisis; the doctor’s overriding goal is recovery; failure will result in death. Although the President mixes this metaphor several times, the basic structure of life-or-death emergency and problematic outcome is preserved.

In a medical emergency, a series of catastrophic events creates a crisis. This is the format in which President Obama recounted the economic history of the past five years. It was “five years ago this week that the financial crisis rocked Wall Street and sent an economy already in recession into a tailspin.” “…Some of the largest investment banks in the world failed; stocks markets plunged; banks stopped lending to families and small businesses.” And, hearkening explicitly to the medical metaphor, “the auto industry – the heart beat of American manufacturing – was flat-lining…By the time I took the oath of office, the economy was shrinking by an annual rate of more than 8 percent. Our businesses were shedding 800,000 jobs each month. It was a perfect storm that would rob millions of Americans of jobs and homes and savings that they had worked a lifetime to build. And it laid bare the long erosion of a middle class that, for more than a decade, has had to work harder and harder to keep up.”

In a hospital ER, a worst-case scenario will compel doctors to invoke the protocol known as “Code Blue,” a crash program to restore vital signs in the face of complete collapse. This was the Obama administration analogue: The federal government had to “…act…quickly through the Recovery Act” to “arrest the downward spiral” and “put a floor under the fall” by “put[ting] people to work…teachers in our classrooms, first responders on the streets.” The government “helped responsible homeowners modify their mortgages” and “jump-start[ed] the flow of credit.” Thanks to these and other measures, the President concluded triumphantly, “we saved the auto industry.”

Once the emergency has been met and the patient is out of immediate danger, doctors can then proceed with the process of rehabilitation. This may involve a hospital stay of short or long duration or possibly a trip to an outpatient facility and extended therapy. President Obama outlines his analogue of the American economy’s recovery after he saved it: The Obama administration “pushed back against the trends that have been battering the middle class… took on the broken health-care system…invested in new technologies… put in place new rules that we need to finalize before the end of the year, by the way, to make sure the job is done… and …locked in tax cuts for 98% of Americans.” All this was accomplished in exchange for “ask[ing] those at the top to pay a little more.”

How is the patient progressing, five years on? What is the economic prognosis? “So, if you add it all up, our businesses have added 7.5 million new jobs [over the last 3.5 years]” and “the unemployment rate has come down.” The housing market is “healing.” Financial markets are “safer.” Today, we “sell more goods made in America to the rest of the world than ever before… generate more renewable energy than ever before…produce more natural gas than anybody.” Why, “just two weeks from now, Americans [are] finally going to have a chance to buy quality, affordable health care on the private marketplace… we’ve cleared away the rubble from the financial crisis [and] begun to lay the foundation for economic growth and prosperity.”

In true doctorly fashion, the President issued some caveats. It seems that the “top 1% of Americans took home 20% of the nation’s income last year…most of the gains have gone to the top one-tenth of 1%.” Congress should be focused on issues such as “How do we grow the economy faster? How do we create better jobs? How do we increase wages and incomes; how do we increase opportunity… how do we create retirement security….” Government, of course, will have to make “the investments necessary” to achieve all these goals. Government will assume “the critical role in making sure we have an education system …for a global economy.” Congress will enable all this via the budget it passes – provided the quixotic Republicans don’t gum up the works with their monomaniacal insistence on “cuts” to trim the budget deficit. How can they say this when “the deficits are falling faster than at any time since before I was born”?

The Facts are Secondary

It would be easy to get hung up on the facts of President Obama’s “medical report.” Here and there he departs from metaphor to into boldfaced, bald-faced lie. Obama’s bland claim that “we saved the auto industry” doesn’t survive even a fast glance, unless the Ford Motor Company was exiled from the industry by a FISA court in the last five years. Ford didn’t receive any government subsidies, whereas General Motors and Chrysler each got a full-monte bailout makeover. It was telling that the former Big 3 all downsized to broadly similar degrees. In other words, they really underwent a reorganization process even though two of them were spared formal bankruptcy. Now, their lean, mean status has put them back on the front pages of business sections and spawned banner headlines reporting land-office sales of new models. The “salvation” of the auto industry can be ascribed to Ford’s refusal to be bailed out and the successful reorganization of the Big 2.

The President’s dire recollection of the imminent doom of investment banking is droll considering his unrelenting class-warfare assaults on Wall Street, the 1% and bankers generally. Ironically, the big banks who received bailouts were doing little investment banking at the time and are doing even less today. Moreover, neither Bear Stearns (whose failure was masked by its sale) nor Lehman Brothers qualify as among the biggest investment banks, so it is not clear which mega-bank failures the President is referring to.

These are mere quibbles, though, compared to the major point at issue, which is the fundamental basis of President Obama’s rhetoric. To what extent is his medical metaphor rooted in analytical reality?

The Utter Poverty of the ICU Analogy

It is likely that most of the President’s audience did not parse his metaphor as thoroughly as we are about to do. But they instinctively grasped that he was speaking figuratively. They probably experienced a déjà vu feeling of urgency, reminiscent of September, 2008 – a sense that something bad was happening and that something needed to be done quickly to stop it before the world fell apart. How apt was the President’s metaphor; how accurately did it depict the concrete economic reality? Was it true to reality or was it merely the language of political theater, intended to push the emotional buttons of his audience and achieve the desired effect?

The analogy between a modern economy – consisting of hundreds of millions of interacting individuals, and one single patient – suffering a critical illness and facing death – is very bad. There is little or no commonality between the two.

The patient is a single, holistic entity. The economy is an abstraction, made up of many millions of such entities. The patient’s existence is threatened. The economy’s existence is not threatened by a financial crisis, despite the apocalyptic language tossed about indiscriminately by the President. (To be sure, President Obama is only following the example set by Treasury Secretary O’Neill, who spoke darkly of “fac[ing] the abyss” and falsely warned Congress that unthinkable horrors would follow a failure to pass immediate bailout legislation.) The U.S. and every other advanced industrial nation have faced financial crises periodically since the 19th century. No nation has ceased to exist as a result of such a crisis. Indeed, as a first approximation, the individuals within the nation are not threatened with extinction by a financial crisis either, although many people may face a diminution in their standard of living.

A single patient is saved by doctors who utilize resources that originate outside the patient; e.g., outside his or her body. These include medicines, blood for transfusions, glucose and other basic forms of stabilizing fluids and numerous other forms of extraneous assistance ranging from diagnostic tools to organs for transplantation. A government instituting a “recovery program” – whether a Code Blue-type of emergency-bailout plan or intermediate assistance such as Fed Chairman Bernanke’s quantitative-assistance scheme or a longer term program for economic growth – can only use resources that originate inside the economy itself. The resources must come from somewhere and no government has the power to spontaneously generate resources out of thin air. Even money that is borrowed from foreign sources must be paid for by repaying principal and interest and in other ways as well. (A country that enjoys the privilege of “seigniorage” because its money is a “vehicle currency” held for transactions and investment purposes by foreigners may perhaps evade repayment longer than would normally be the case.) Really, “the economy” can be conceived in global terms, since the bailouts were a transnational operation on both sides.

Consider how hampered ER doctors would be if they had to rely on only the patient’s own resources and reserves of strength in fighting emergency illness or injury. Well, that is a fair analogy of the constraints governments face in “rescuing” their citizens from financial crises. Actually, that only begins to describe the limitations of government corrective action. Doctors can learn tremendous amounts about their patients via diagnostic tools like X-rays and cat scans and blood tests. But the information governments would have to know in order to “rescue” an economy is widely dispersed in fragmentary form among hundreds of millions of people. Not only that, much of that information is subjective and wouldn’t be useful to anybody except the particular individuals that possess it.

Doctors can rely on the patient’s help because the patient wants to live. The emergency efforts exerted by the hospital staff often succeed because they are a voluntary cooperative enterprise in which the patient fully cooperates. Governments operate on the basis of coercion and compulsion. This is necessary because governments can acquire resources to help some people only by taking resources away from other people. Coercion is a shaky basis for production and maintenance. If it were a superior form of economic endeavor, the totalitarian dictatorships of the 19th and 20th centuries would have been history’s great success stories. Instead, they were tragic, ghastly failures. The resistance to the bailouts of the big banks is only one of the pushbacks suffered by the federal government’s rescue program. The Fed’s Zero Interest-Rate Program (ZIRP) left millions of elderly Americans adrift without a suitable income-producing vehicle, given the artificially low interest rates imposed on fixed-income investments by the government policy. This population has become highly restive, not to say mutinous. Millions of Americans have left the labor force because the extension of unemployment benefits has made idleness more attractive than work – and because government regulation of the labor market has simply made job creation too costly and dangerous to businesses. These are all cases in which Americans oppose a program ostensibly designed to rescue them from economic emergency and privation.

This highlights the overarching dissonance in the Obama ICU analogy. Treating the economy as a single organic unity fulfills the old socialist dream originally enunciated by the French philosopher Saint-Simon, who declared that a nation should be run as though it were one single huge factory. The pretense that there really is a “nation as a whole” rather than a reality consisting of 312 million individuals allows governments to enact dreadful economic policies like the Economic Recovery Act. Pumping money into an amorphous entity called “the economy” ignores the individual interactions and logical connections that make up a functioning economy. We cannot even draw a useful analogy between the warring organisms within the human body and claim that government is helping the “good” organisms (e.g., people) against the “bad” ones for the good of the “whole body” (e.g., the nation). Doctors know how to separate good from bad organisms for the survival of a single patient; governments have no objective basis for transferring real income from some people to others for the good of the nation.

The Real Nature of Economic Crisis, Financial or Otherwise

Finance differs from non-monetary economic theory in dealing with the allocation of resources over time rather than at a single (hypothetical) point in time.  Thus, complicating topics such as saving, borrowing, interest rates and debt intrude on the analysis. A financial crisis occurs when a gross mismatch between the saving/investing and borrowing/lending desires of the public places financial institutions and mechanisms in jeopardy of failure. The only cure for the crisis is realignment between the value of goods people are willing to commit to future consumption and the value of goods producers commit to make available in the future. Proper alignment implies that the interest rates established in the markets for loanable funds equalize the amounts of borrowing people want to do for each future term to maturity with the amounts of money available for lending in the future. Sooner or later, there is no substitute for this curative process. When values are once again realigned, the resulting pattern of resources will require that businesses wrongly created and jobs formerly occupied due to the crisis will no longer exist. Once again, there is no substitute for this corrective process.

The U.S. has suffered recurrent financial crises throughout its history. Each financial crisis had one thing in common with all others. They all ended. The first financial crisis was in 1807. Another one – a big one – followed in 1837.The biggest one of all may have been in 1873. But none of them went on forever and none of them caused the death of the U.S. economy – whatever that might be interpreted to mean.

Keynesian economics was neither a necessary not a sufficient condition for recovery from a financial crisis. It was not necessary because Keynesian economics was not invented until 1936; numerous financial crises had come and gone by that time. It was not sufficient because the U.S. economy suffered financial crises after the invention of Keynesian economics that were unaffected, even worsened, by the implementation of Keynesian policies.

Bailouts of big banks were no more necessary than were the bailouts of GM and Chrysler. (Once again, blame should go primarily to the architects of these measures, Treasury Secretary O’Neill and Fed Chairman Bernanke – but the policies were wholeheartedly supported by President Obama.) These measures are often supported even by many so-called free-marketers, some of whom cite Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman’s claim that widespread bank failures triggered a massive decline in the money supply that caused the Great Depression. As an explanation of the Depression, Friedman’s view is misleading at best, but even if accepted it does not remotely justify bank bailouts. Friedman was famous for insisting that the Fed could, and should, have increased the money supply to counter the reverse-money-multiplier effects of the bank failures. His famous quip that the Fed could even drop money from helicopters if necessary illustrated his view that the Fed had countless ways to get money into the hands of the public. Bailing out banks – the realization of moral hazard under fractional-reserve banking regulation – has nothing to do with increasing the money supply. That is exactly what Ben Bernanke proceeded to prove with his program of quantitative easing. By creating money hand over fist after the banks had already been bailed out, Bernanke was closing the barn door after allowing the animals to escape!

Citations of Milton Friedman as authority for the bank bailouts by Ben Bernanke and other left-wing economists are an example of what the Soviet KGB used to call “disinformation” and what magicians refer to as “misdirection.” They are designed to confuse and mislead an opponent by presenting a false trail of reasoning and evidence.

The Real Threat to Life and Limb Posed by Economic Crisis

The only form of economic crisis that can, and has, threatened life and limb throughout human history is a monetary crisis. Only a monetary crisis can overturn the entire basis for trade or exchange, making it impossible or prohibitively difficult for people to exchange goods and services. This poses an immediate threat to life and limb because almost everybody specializes rather narrowly in their production. Specialization increases productivity and increases real incomes – provided people are able to exchange the fruits of their productive specialty for the consumption goods they love. But if and when they cannot do this, specialization turns into a nightmare. People cannot acquire the goods and services they know and love. At best, this is an incredible nuisance. At worst, it is a clear and present danger to life and limb.

Technically, it is true that an economy – or, more properly, a nation – will eventually recover from a monetary crisis, too. But prior to recovery, famine, pestilence and death may visit the nation beset by crisis. Ancient Rome was one nation felled by monetary crisis; the crisis not only caused havoc but weakened the Republic so much that it could no longer fight off its enemies. In Germany’s WeimarRepublic; the chaos caused by hyperinflation put the public’s sole focus on day-to-day survival. This completely delegitimized the democratic government and paved the way for Hitler. His authoritarian rule was seen as preferable to the ineffectual efforts of socialists who could no longer fulfill the promises of security that had won them election.

More recently, we have witnessed the devastating effects in such places as Zimbabwe, where hyperinflation was the last refuge of the scoundrel, Mugabe. The failure of investment projects financed by foreign loans, coupled with land-redistribution policies that dispossessed capable farming operations, had decimated the productive capacity of Zimbabwe’s economy. Unemployment reportedly approached 80%. To finance his administration’s regional wars and pay the government’s bills, President Mugabe permitted money creation on a scale not seen since the Weimar inflation. As we would expect, the result was the disintegration of trade and a retreat into dictatorship, subsistence, barter.

Thus, monetary collapse – not financial crisis – is the only real economic approximation to the emergency-threat-of-death metaphor rhetorically brandished by President Obama.

This is a sobering thought, since it suggests that America does, after all, face a potentially life-threatening menace in its not-too-distant future. It is the threat of hyperinflation and monetary collapse presented by the $4 trillion in excess reserves sitting on the accounts of American banks. This money is currently receiving interest, thanks to the change in policy allowing interest to be paid on excess reserve accounts. Should that status change, though, the money might be loaned out to businesses and promptly spent. This large volume of money chasing domestic goods would bid up prices with alacrity. The resulting hyperinflation would jeopardize the value of U.S. money. That is a disaster waiting to happen.

The threat is not in our past. It lies ahead of us, in our future. President Obama’s policies did not save us from it. Rather, they now threaten us with it.

Should we temper this conclusion with the reminder that the unprecedented money creation of the last few years is the work of the Federal Reserve and its Chairman, Ben Bernanke? Is the President exempt from criticism owing to the Fed’s independence from political influence and control?

President Obama has not moved to replace Bernanke. The President has not even expressed disapproval of the Fed Chairman’s policies. And the current favorite to succeed Bernanke early next year, Janet Yellen, is widely considered to favor even looser monetary policy than Bernanke, if such a thing can be imagined. Presumably, if President Obama disapproved, he could find another Fed Chairman. So far, there is no indication that he will do that.

Rhetoric Matters

The problem with President Obama’s recounting of events during and since the Financial Crisis of 2008 is not his errors of fact, glaring though they are. His rhetoric is built upon a superficially attractive but utterly wrongheaded metaphor – Obama Administration policies as ICU measures taken to rescue an economy that is likened to a critically ill patient. The metaphor leads directly to the wrong diagnosis of the Crisis and the wrong medicine for the patients, who are 315 million individuals rather than indistinguishable parts of one gigantic whole.

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