DRI-234 for week of 11-17-13: Economists Start to See the Light – and Speak Up

An Access Advertising EconBrief:

Economists Start to See the Light – and Speak Up

In order for dreadful economic policies to be ended, two things must happen. Economists must recognize the errors – then, having seen the light, they must say so publicly. For nearly five years, various economists have complained about Federal Reserve economic policies. Unfortunately, the complaints have been restrained and carefully worded to dilute their meaning and soften their effect. This has left the general public confused about the nature and degree of disagreement within the profession. It has also failed to highlight the radicalism of the Fed’s policies.

Two recent Wall Street Journal economic op-eds have broken this pattern. They bear unmistakable marks of acuity and courage. Both pieces focus particularly on the tactic of quantitative easing, but branch out to take in broader issues in the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy.

A Monetary Insider Kneels at the Op-Ed Confessional to Beg Forgiveness

Like many a Wall Street bigwig, Andrew Huszar has led a double life as managing director at Morgan Stanley and Federal Reserve policymaker. After he served seven years at the Fed from 2001-2008, good behavior won him a parole to Morgan Stanley. But when the Great Financial Crisis hit, TARP descended upon the landscape. This brought Huszar a call to return to public service in spring, 2009 as manager of the Fed’s program of mortgage-backed securities purchases. In “Confessions of a Quantitative Easer” (The Wall Street Journal, 11/12/2013), Huszar gives us the inside story of his year of living dangerously in that position.

Despite his misgivings about what he perceived as the Fed’s increasing subservience to Wall Street, Huszar accepted the post and set about purchasing $1.25 trillion (!) of mortgage-backed securities over the next year. This was the lesser-known half of the Fed’s quantitative-easing program, the little brother of the Fed’s de facto purchases of Treasury debt. “Senior Fed officials… were publicly acknowledging [past] mistakes and several of those officials emphasized to me how committed they were to a major Wall Street revamp.” So, he “took a leap of faith.”

And just what, exactly, was he expected to have faith in? “Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear that the Fed’s central motivation was to ‘affect credit conditions for households and businesses.'” Huszar was supposed to “quarterback the largest economic stimulus in U.S. history.”

So far, Huszar’s story seems straightforward enough. For over half a century, economists have had a clear idea of what it meant to stimulate an economy via central-bank purchases of securities. That idea has been to provide banks with an increase in reserves that simultaneously increases the monetary base. Under the fractional-reserve system of banking, this increase in reserves will allow banks to increase lending, causing a pyramidal increase in reserves, money, spending, income and employment. John Maynard Keynes himself was dubious about this use of monetary policy, at least during the height of a depression, because he feared that businesses would be reluctant to borrow in the face of stagnant private demand. However, Keynes’ neo-Keynesian successors gradually came to understand that the simple Keynesian remedy of government deficit spending would not work without an accompanying increase in the money stock – hence the need for reinforcement of fiscal stimulus with monetary stimulus.

Only, doggone it, things just didn’t seem to work out that way. Sure enough, the federal government passed a massive trillion-dollar spending measure that took effect in 2009. But “it wasn’t long before my old doubts resurfaced. Despite the Fed’s rhetoric, my program wasn’t helping to make credit any more accessible for the average American. The banks were only issuing fewer and fewer loans. More insidiously, whatever credit they were issuing wasn’t getting much cheaper. QE may have been driving down the wholesale cost for banks to make loans, but Wall Street was pocketing most of the extra cash.”

Just as worrisome was the reaction to the doubts expressed by Huszar and fellow colleagues within the Fed. Instead of worrying “obsessively about the costs versus the benefits” of their actions, policymakers seemed concerned only with feedback from Wall Street and institutional investors.

When QE1 concluded in April, 2010, Huszar observed that Wall Street banks and near-banks had scored a triple play. Not only had they booked decent profits on those loans they did make, but they also collected fat brokerage fees on the Fed’s securities purchases and saw their balance sheets enhanced by the rise in mortgage-security prices. Remember – the Fed’s keenness to buy mortgage-backed securities in the first place was due primarily to the omnipresence of these securities in bank portfolios. Indeed, mortgage-backed securities served as liquid assets throughout the financial system and it was their plummeting value during the financial crisis that caused the paralyzing credit freeze. Meanwhile, “there had been only trivial relief for Main Street.”

When, a few months later, the Fed announced QE2, Huszar “realized the Fed had lost any remaining ability to think independently from Wall Street. Demoralized, I returned to the private sector.”

Three years later, this is how Huszar sizes up the QE program. “The Fed keeps buying roughly $85 billion in bonds a month, chronically delaying so much as a minor QE taper. Over five years, its purchases have come to more than $4 trillion. Amazingly, in a supposedly free-market nation, QE has become the largest financial-market intervention by any government in world history.”

“And the impact? Even by the Fed’s sunniest calculations, aggressive QE over five years has generated only a few percentage points of U.S. growth. By contrasts, experts outside the Fed…suggest that the Fed may have [reaped] a total return of as little as 0.25% of GDP (i.e., a mere $40 billion bump in U.S. economic output).” In other words, “QE isn’t really working” –

except for Wall Street, where 0.2% of U.S. banks control 70% total U.S. bank assets and form “more of a cartel” than ever. By subsidizing Wall Street banks at the expense of the general welfare, QE had become “Wall Street’s new ‘too big to fail’ policy.”

The Beginning of Wisdom

Huszar’s piece gratifies on various levels. It answers one question that has bedeviled Fed-watchers: Do the Fed’s minions really believe the things the central bank says? The answer seems to be that they do – until they stop believing. And that happens eventually even to high-level field generals.

It is obvious that Huszar stopped drinking Federal Reserve Kool-Aid sometime in 2010. The Fed’s stated position is that the economy is in recovery – albeit a slow, fragile one – midwived by previous fiscal and monetary policies and preserved by the QE series. Huszar doesn’t swallow this line, even though dissent among professional economists has been muted over the course of the Obama years.

Most importantly, Huszar’s eyes have been opened to the real source of the financial crisis and ensuing recession; namely, government itself. “Yes, those financial markets have rallied spectacularly…but for how long? Experts…are suggesting that conditions are again ‘bubble-like.'”

Having apprehended this much, why has Huszar’s mind stopped short of the full truth? Perhaps his background, lacking in formal economic training, made it harder for him to connect all the dots. His own verdict on the failings of QE should have driven him to the next stage of analysis and prompted him to ask certain key questions.

Why did banks “only issu[e] fewer and fewer loans”? After all, this is why QE stimulated Wall Street but not Main Street; monetary policy normally provides economic stimulus by inducing loans to businesses and (secondarily) consumers, but in this case those loans were conspicuous by their absence. The answer is that the Fed deliberately arranged to allow interest payments on excess reserves it held for its member banks. Instead of making risky loans, banks could make a riskless profit by holding excess reserves. This unprecedented state of affairs was deliberately stage-managed by the Fed.

Why has the Fed been so indifferent to the net effects of its actions, instead of “worry[ing] obsessively about the costs versus the benefits”? The answer is that the Fed has been lying to the public, to Congress and conceivably even to the Obama Administration about its goals. The purpose of its actions has not been to stimulate the economy, but rather to keep it comatose (for “its” own good) while the Fed artificially resuscitates the balance sheets of banks.

Why did the Fed suddenly start buying mortgage-backed securities after “never [buying] one mortgage bond…in its almost 100-year history”? Bank portfolios (more particularly, portfolios of big banks) have been stuffed to the gills with these mortgage-backed securities, whose drastic fall in value during the financial crisis threatened the banks with insolvency. By buying mortgage-backed securities like they were going out of style, the Fed increases the demand for those securities. This drives up their price. This acts as artificial respiration to bank balance sheets, just as Andrew Huszar relates in his op-ed.

The resume of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is dotted with articles extolling the role played by banks as vital sources of credit to business. Presumably, this – rather than pure cronyism, as vaguely hinted by Huszar – explains Bernanke’s obsession with protecting banks. (It was Bernanke, acting with the Treasury Secretary, who persuaded Congress to pass the enormous bailout legislation in late 2008.)

Why has “the Fed’s independence [been] eroding”? There is room for doubt about Bernanke’s motivations in holding both short-term and long-term interest rates at unprecedentedly low levels. These low interest rates have enabled the Treasury to finance trillions of dollars in new debt and roll over trillions more in existing debt at low rates. At the above-normal interest rates that would normally prevail in our circumstances, the debt service would devour most of the federal budget. Thus, Bernanke is carrying water for the Treasury. Reservoirs of water.

Clearly, Huszar has left out more than he has included in his denunciation of QE. Yet he has still been savaged by the mainstream press for his presumption. This speaks volumes about the tacit gag order that has muffled criticism of the Administration’s economic policies.

It’s About Time Somebody Started Yellin’ About Yellen

Kevin Warsh was the youngest man ever to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors when he took office in 2006. He earned a favorable reputation in that capacity until he resigned in 2011. In “Finding Out Where Janet Yellen Stands” (The Wall Street Journal, 11/13/2013), Warsh digs deeper into the views of the new Federal Reserve Board Chairman than the questions on everybody’s lips: “When will ‘tapering’ of the QE program begin? and “How long will the period of ultra-low interest rates last?” He sets out to “highlight – then question – some of the prevailing wisdom at the basis of current Fed policy.”

Supporters of QE have pretended that quantitative easing is “nothing but the normal conduct of monetary policy at the zero-lower-bound of interest rates.” Warsh rightly declares this to be hogwash. While central banks have traditionally lowered short-term interest rates to stimulate investment, “the purchase of long-term assets from the U.S. Treasury to achieve negative real interest rates is extraordinary, an unprecedented change in practice… The Fed is directly influencing the price of long-term Treasurys – the most important asset in the world, the predicate from which virtually all investment decisions are judged.”

Since the 1950s, modern financial theory as taught in orthodox textbooks has treated long-term U.S. government bonds as the archetypal “riskless asset.” This provides a benchmark for one end of the risk spectrum, a vital basis for comparison that is used by investment professionals and forensic economists in court testimony. Or rather, all this used to be true before Ben Bernanke unleashed ZIRP (the Zero Interest Rate Policy) on the world. Now all the finance textbooks will have to be rewritten. Expert witnesses will have to find a new benchmark around which to structure their calculations.

Worst of all, the world’s investors are denied a source of riskless fixed income. They can still purchase U.S. Treasurys, of course, but these are no longer the same asset that they knew and loved for decades. Now the risk of default must be factored in, just as it is for the bonds of a banana republic. Now the effects of inflation must be factored in to its price. The effect of this transformation on the world economy is incalculably, unfavorably large.

Ben Bernanke has repeatedly maintained that the U.S. economy would benefit from a higher rate of inflation. Or, as Warsh puts it, that “the absence of higher inflation is sufficient license” for the QE program. Once again, Warsh begs to differ. Here, he takes issue with Bernanke’s critics as much as with Bernanke himself. “The most pronounced risk of QE is not an outbreak of hyperinflation,” Warsh contends. “Rather, long periods of free money and subsidized credit are associated with significant capital misallocation and malinvestment – which do not augur well for long-term growth or financial stability.”

Déjà Va-Va-Vuum

Of all the hopeful signs to recently emerge, this is the most startling and portentous. For centuries – at least two centuries before John Maynard Keynes wrote his General Theory and in the years since – the most important effect of money on economic activity was thought to be on the general level of prices; i.e., on inflation. Now Warsh is breaking with this time-honored tradition. In so doing, he is paying long-overdue homage to the only coherent business-cycle theory developed by economists.

In the early 1930s, F.A. Hayek formulated a business-cycle theory that temporarily vied with the monetary theory of John Maynard Keynes for supremacy among the world’s economists. Hayek’s theory was built around the elements stressed by Warsh – capital misallocation and malinvestment caused by central-bank manipulation of the money supply and interest rates. In spite of Hayek’s prediction of the Great Depression in 1929 and of the failure of the Soviet economy in the 1930s, Hayek’s business-cycle theory was ridiculed by Keynes and his acolytes. The publication of Keynes’ General Theory in 1936 relegated Hayek to obscurity in his chosen profession. Hayek subsequently regained worldwide fame with his book The Road to Serfdom in 1944 and even won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1974. Yet his business-cycle theory has survived only among the cult of Austrian-school economists that stubbornly refused to die out even as Keynesian economics took over the profession.

When Keynesian theory was repudiated by the profession in the late 1970s and 80s, the Austrian school remained underground. The study of capital theory and the concept of capital misallocation had gone out of favor in the 1930s and were ignored by the economics profession in favor of the less-complex modern Quantity Theory developed by Milton Friedman and his followers. Alas, monetarism went into eclipse in the 80s and 90s and macroeconomists drifted back towards a newer, vaguer version of Keynesianism.

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the subsequent Great Recession and our current Great Stagnation have made it clear that economists are clueless. In effect, there is no true Macroeconomic theory. Warsh’s use of the terms “capital misallocation” and “malinvestment” may be the first time since the 1930s that these Hayekian terms have received favorable mention from a prominent figure in the economic Establishment. (In addition to his past service as a Fed Governor, Warsh also served on the National Economic Council during the Bush Administration.)

For decades, graduate students in Macroeconomics have been taught that the only purpose to stimulative economic policies by government was to speed up the return to full employment when recession strikes. The old Keynesian claims that capitalist economies could not achieve full employment without government deficit spending or money printing were discredited long ago. But this argument in favor of artificial stimulus has itself now been discredited by events, not only in the U.S. and Europe but also in Japan. Not only that, the crisis and recession proceeded along lines closely following those predicted by Hayek – lavish credit creation fueled by artificially low interest rates long maintained by government central banks, coupled with international transmission of capital misallocation by flexible exchange rates. It is long past time for the economics profession to wrench its gaze away from the failed nostrums of Keynes and redirect its attention to an actual theory of business cycles with a demonstrated history of success. Warsh has taken the key first step in that direction.

The Rest of the Story

When a central bank deliberately sets out to debase a national currency, the shock waves from its actions reverberate throughout the national economy. When the economy is the world’s productive engine, those waves resound around the globe. Warsh patiently dissects current Fed policy piece by piece.

To the oft-repeated defense that the Fed is merely in charge of monetary policy, Warsh correctly terms the central bank the “default provider of aggregate demand.” In effect, the Fed has used its statutory mandate to promote high levels of employment as justification for assuming the entire burden of economic policy. This flies in the face of even orthodox, mainstream Keynesian economics, which sees fiscal and monetary policies acting in concert.

The United States is “the linchpin in the international global economy.” When the Fed adopts extremely loose monetary policy, this places foreign governments in the untenable position of having either to emulate our monetary ease or to watch their firms lose market share and employment to U.S. firms. Not surprisingly, politics pulls them in the former direction and this tends to stoke global inflationary pressures. If the U.S. dollar should depreciate greatly, its status as the world’s vehicle currency for international trade would be threatened. Not only would worldwide inflation imperil the solidity of world trade, but the U.S. would lose the privilege of seigniorage, the ability to run continual trade deficits owing to the world’s willingness to hold American dollars in lieu of using them to purchase goods and services.

The Fed has made much of its supposed fidelity to “forward guidance” and “transparency,” principles intended to allow the public to anticipate its future actions. Warsh observes that its actions have been anything but transparent and its policy hints anything but accurate. Instead of giving lip service to these cosmetic concepts, Warsh advises, the Fed should simply devote its energies to following correct policies. Then the need for advance warning would not be so urgent.

Under these circumstances, it is hardly surprising that we have so little confidence in the Fed’s ability to “drain excess liquidity” from the markets. We are not likely to give way in awed admiration of the Fed’s virtuosity in monetary engineering when its pronouncements over the past five years have varied from cryptic to highly unsound and its predictions have all gone wrong.

Is the Tide Turning?

To a drowning man, any sign that the waters are receding seems like a godsend. These articles appear promising not only because they openly criticize the failed economic policies of the Fed and (by extension) the Obama Administration, but because they dare to suggest that The Fed’s attempt to portray its actions as merely conventional wisdom is utterly bogus. Moreover, they imply or (in Kevin Warsh’s case) very nearly state that it is time to reevaluate the foundations of Macroeconomics itself.

Is the tide turning? Maybe or maybe not, but at last we can poke our heads above water for a lungful of oxygen. And the fresh air is intoxicating.